Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.212059 0.255190 0.307042 0.374642 0.461441 0.570515 7.201516e-01
2025-05-25 0.143193 0.187171 0.245874 0.331827 0.457723 0.640794 9.378380e-01
2025-06-01 0.108521 0.152099 0.215752 0.319171 0.490521 0.778206 1.334701e+00
2025-06-08 0.085111 0.126732 0.192564 0.310213 0.529485 0.954694 1.947367e+00
2025-06-15 0.069162 0.108773 0.176184 0.308070 0.584203 1.206201 2.996864e+00
2025-06-22 0.057140 0.094364 0.162060 0.306213 0.644203 1.531748 4.753406e+00
2025-06-29 0.046213 0.079371 0.143018 0.288506 0.664808 1.801148 6.985755e+00
2025-07-06 0.034235 0.060014 0.110924 0.231813 0.561856 1.641367 7.302750e+00
2025-07-13 0.029358 0.053252 0.102760 0.228253 0.605070 2.031283 1.186006e+01
2025-07-20 0.026131 0.049095 0.099113 0.235053 0.688424 2.721994 2.267425e+01
2025-07-27 0.023700 0.046088 0.097327 0.246803 0.803612 3.823622 5.037952e+01
2025-08-03 0.021449 0.043014 0.094636 0.255444 0.921656 5.311731 1.219881e+02
2025-08-10 0.018618 0.038286 0.087136 0.247940 0.978626 6.743701 2.870092e+02
2025-08-17 0.016104 0.033829 0.079266 0.236203 1.010964 8.265820 7.183161e+02
2025-08-24 0.014515 0.031294 0.076009 0.240046 1.141539 11.839850 3.789890e+03
2025-08-31 0.013156 0.029065 0.073060 0.244179 1.291823 17.392957 5.262718e+04
2025-09-07 0.012060 0.027300 0.071038 0.251680 1.492247 27.254455 1.886804e+08
2025-09-14 0.011074 0.025638 0.068906 0.258094 1.713426 43.684674 NaN
2025-09-21 0.009936 0.023358 0.064198 0.250055 1.802195 59.905191 NaN
2025-09-28 0.008298 0.019465 0.053321 0.206488 1.469967 46.892041 NaN
2025-10-05 0.007645 0.018232 0.051176 0.206920 1.616415 71.223785 NaN
2025-10-12 0.007204 0.017527 0.050668 0.216051 1.900092 132.785640 NaN
2025-10-19 0.006859 0.017036 0.050810 0.229436 2.305025 293.761506 NaN